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For risk identification, several sources are available. None of them are perfect or sufficient for a 100% result. This only can be approached by a balanced and combined use of all the available sources.

1 Horizon scans.

2 Society support.

3 New legislation.

4 Data mining/risk analysis.

5 Random audits.

6 Pioneer investigations: ‘test drilling/piloting’.

7 Signals from the shop-floor.

Risk picture: The result of the risk identification stage is the risk picture. It shows areas, groups of taxpayers or sectors where risks are expected.

2nd Phase: RISK ANALYSIS:

Once risks have been identified, it is necessary to analyse what types of risk they are. For this, the following variables are used:

– Frequency of Risk.

– Probability of risk.

– Consequences of Risk.

– Causes of risk: complexity of the rules, insufficient or inefficient control, inadequate sanctions, etc.

Risk analysis normally requires the use of computer systems because of the sheer volume of data.

3rd Phase: RISK RANKING, PRIORITISATION AND ASSESSMENT