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Prognosis and Mortality of Influenza

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In giving a prognosis of influenza one has to take into consideration the peculiar manifestations of the disease, especially the possible and sudden changes which are liable to take place in the lungs. The points which lead one to feel that the outlook is grave occur in about the following order, which is also about the order of the severity of the symptoms. First, cyanosis. This usually appeared quite early and was considered a forerunner of definite lung infection. It may have been a symptom only of the “wet lung,” to which reference has been made, but it was usually followed with definitely recognized pathology in the chest, and it immediately made the outlook unfavorable. Second, continuation of elevated temperature. If the temperature fell to normal in three or four days, the outlook was, of course, good; but if it went up again, or if the temperature did not fall in that time, the chances were that there was a lung involvement, even though the chest signs were negative or only those of an acute bronchitis. Strange to say, however, when definite chest signs were once recognized, the height of the temperature or the continuation of fever was not so important a prognostic factor. Third, increase in pulse rate. The pulse, as was noted before, was unusually slow, even though the patient seemed desperately ill; when, however, it began to increase in rate the condition was usually very grave. Fourth, the extent of lung involvement. This was of very little prognostic value. Both lower lobes might be solid, and yet if there was no cyanosis and the pulse and respirations were satisfactory, the outlook was rather good. On the other hand, there might be the slightest involvement of the lung, and if the pulse were rapid and cyanosis present the outlook was grave. Fifth, depression and stupor, or loss of so-called “morale.” If the patient remained clear in his mind, bright and hopeful, no difference how extensive the involvement or how grave the symptoms, the prospect of recovery was better. This is, of course, not peculiar to influenza, but it seemed particularly striking during the epidemic. Sixth, a gradually rising rate in respiration, which often was not more than two per minute per day, if progressive, even in the absence of other untoward signs, conveyed a serious prognosis.

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